Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 110.449212 126.295933 144.111419 165.719382 191.344712 220.919481 257.859699
2026-01-18 89.866191 110.107284 134.860550 167.704584 210.659326 265.656986 342.595592
2026-01-25 76.440087 98.442495 127.056774 167.672731 224.959804 304.620890 426.964627
2026-02-01 65.927538 88.213129 118.610909 164.122681 232.356430 333.952170 502.899803
2026-02-08 57.926513 79.974886 111.257660 160.241239 237.616561 359.905380 578.263104
2026-02-15 51.718286 73.340779 105.076881 156.751491 242.242083 384.825308 656.692636
2026-02-22 49.633637 72.402446 107.047206 165.885146 268.279867 449.602344 822.189490
2026-03-01 46.252486 69.047840 104.777063 167.625651 281.783744 494.637135 961.800431
2026-03-08 43.438058 66.244691 102.989488 169.791145 296.171973 543.857210 1123.993489
2026-03-15 40.549871 63.009985 100.087077 169.505098 305.754060 585.259093 1280.980767
2026-03-22 39.547533 62.770225 102.181796 178.509415 334.872001 673.440129 1580.449341
2026-03-29 38.348785 62.059515 103.335850 185.826869 361.761372 762.906544 1917.749309
2026-04-05 36.868725 60.794251 103.487403 191.485009 386.835878 856.130516 2311.628184
2026-04-12 35.074045 58.807541 102.104089 193.865071 405.157173 937.924180 2711.261381
2026-04-19 33.160861 56.431462 99.730612 193.830985 417.856088 1008.598628 3110.778235
2026-04-26 30.961525 53.339650 95.666717 189.607159 419.637068 1049.895025 3427.322466
2026-05-03 28.933117 50.410918 91.654244 184.992034 419.650516 1086.338525 3746.636553
2026-05-10 27.144313 47.803200 88.049060 180.845905 420.154733 1124.548389 4096.745754
2026-05-17 26.951834 48.272340 90.764575 191.704370 462.911047 1308.773046 5227.876758
2026-05-24 25.950458 47.060446 89.848513 193.776011 481.785176 1420.803545 6103.869151
2026-05-31 25.063358 46.009212 89.174779 196.354571 502.715039 1547.542838 7172.301971
2026-06-07 24.002585 44.525730 87.429206 196.013894 514.915598 1646.799935 8177.986666
2026-06-14 23.852576 44.912378 89.847057 206.747696 563.884861 1908.494626 10529.397011